By SAINTMOSES EROMOSELE
Governor Siminalayi Fubara stands at the center of a political firestorm in Rivers State, where a hostile legislature, emboldened by powerful forces, is making a desperate attempt to oust him. But impeachment is not a guaranteed outcome. It is a battle of wits, strategy, and resilience. If Fubara deploys the right mix of legal maneuvers, political alliances, and public pressure, he can survive this storm, frustrate his adversaries, and secure his place in history as a leader who refused to be bullied.
The judiciary remains a formidable shield against political persecution, and Fubara must use it aggressively. The courts are his most reliable weapon to stall, frustrate, and ultimately defeat the impeachment process. A key strategy would be to flood the legal system with lawsuits that challenge the legitimacy of the impeachment proceedings, the defecting lawmakers, and the overall constitutionality of their actions. The Nigerian Constitution, in Section 109(1)(g), clearly states that any lawmaker who defects from their party without a division loses their seat. Fubara must fully pursue this case, ensuring the 27 defectors are legally stripped of their authority. Their existence as lawmakers is the foundation of the impeachment plot, and if they are nullified, the entire process collapses. He must also encourage new legal challenges from different fronts, creating a flood of litigation that ties up the Assembly and keeps them entangled in court battles rather than sitting to impeach him.
Beyond technical legal battles, the legislators have already provided a compelling reason for judicial intervention. The oath of office they swore demands that they shall not allow affection, ill will, or personal decisions to influence their official responsibilities. By refusing to accept and debate the budget presented by the Governor, they have violated this oath, allowing their personal grievances to dictate governance decisions. A lawsuit challenging this dereliction of duty will expose their bias and set another legal hurdle in the impeachment process. If this is pursued aggressively, it will serve as an indictment of the Assembly’s motives and force the judiciary to step in, further complicating their plans.
While the courts remain a key battleground, politics must also be played at the highest level. Engaging President Tinubu is an unavoidable move, but it must be done with extreme caution. The signals from the presidency suggest that the federal government is not an innocent bystander in this crisis. The fact that no one has called the main puppeteer—a serving minister—to order suggests silent approval. Fubara must tread carefully, ensuring that if he approaches the presidency, it is done cleverly and not from a position of weakness. He needs a strong intermediary, someone with influence and credibility. Former President Goodluck Jonathan fits this role perfectly. If Jonathan steps in as a mediator, it elevates the negotiation from one of desperation to one of high-level political diplomacy. Jonathan has the stature to extract a commitment from Tinubu that ensures Fubara is not sacrificed on the altar of political expediency.
At the same time, Fubara must drag the national leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party into the battle. The Rivers crisis must be framed as an attack on the PDP itself, forcing the party to unify around its Governor. If the PDP sees this as a battle for survival rather than an isolated state matter, it will bring its weight to bear, making impeachment politically costly for its adversaries.
While negotiating at the top, Fubara must also work from within. Every impeachment attempt is built on a fragile coalition of lawmakers. Many are driven by self-interest rather than principle, and every Nigerian politician has a price. If Fubara can peel off just 30% of the hostile lawmakers, he shatters the two-thirds majority required for impeachment. This is a strategy that must be executed with precision. A well-crafted mix of political assurances and strategic incentives can turn the tide. Lawmakers who feel they have no future under their current leadership might be willing to switch sides if presented with the right offer. If given the opportunity, the writer of this article has a tried and tested strategy that can be deployed within two weeks to dismantle the impeachment coalition.
Simultaneously, Fubara must weaponize public sentiment. He needs to remind the people of Rivers State that their mandate is under attack. The power of mass mobilization cannot be underestimated. Videos of the Governor being locked out of Parliament, letters to the Assembly dishonored, and the Parliament’s sine die closure in the face of a budget presentation should flood the media space. The people must be shown the injustice happening before their eyes. When the public’s wrath is fully awakened, extreme measures to ensure the continuity of governance will become excusable. The Assembly will find itself boxed into a corner, unable to act without facing massive resistance.
Security and law enforcement must also be leveraged. Fubara must ensure that federal security agencies prevent illegal Assembly sittings. The police must remain neutral, or at the very least, be strategically influenced to uphold constitutional order. If the impeachment plot is legally and politically stalled for long enough, the crisis could become a justification for an emergency situation.
The Nigerian Constitution does not grant a Governor the power to suspend the House of Assembly, but extreme political crises sometimes require extreme measures. A temporary suspension of the Assembly, framed as a necessary step to restore order, would force the opposition to challenge it in court. By the time the legal battle winds its way up to the Supreme Court, valuable time would have been gained. While the court may eventually rule against the Governor, by then, the political landscape would have shifted, giving him a stronger footing to either win over more legislators or push for a broader settlement. Sometimes, politics is about doing what needs to be done, knowing that the consequences will only come after the goal has been achieved.
Fubara is in the fight of his political life, but this battle is far from lost. If he follows a strategic combination of legal battles, political maneuvering, public mobilization, and security intelligence, he can completely neutralize the impeachment plot. He does not need to win every battle—he only needs to make impeachment impossible. With the right moves, the plan to remove him will crumble under its own weight, and he will emerge stronger than ever. This is not just a political crisis; it is a test of his resilience. If he plays his cards right, history will remember him not as the Governor who was removed, but as the leader who stood his ground and turned the tide.
_Saintmoses Eromosele, a lawyer, sociologist, economist, administrator and civil rights advocate, writes from his cassava farm in Ewu.
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